IMD sticks to surplus rain forecast

Pune: Sticking to its earlier forecast, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has reiterated that the country is expected to receive 6% surplus rainfall (106% of the long-period average) this monsoon season.
D S Pai, head, long-range forecast division at IMD, told TOI on Wednesday that the country is expected to receive 106% rainfall (give or take) of its LPA in the current monsoon season.
The agency further said the month of September, which usually remains dry, is expected to receive normal rainfall in the first half against "the second half which will remain almost dry".
"The normal rainfall in the first half can be attributed to the western disturbances currently prevailing over North India," IMD said, adding that poor show in the second half could be linked to the neutral La Nina conditions.
As per the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the El Nino 3.4 index continues to be below the threshold neutral value (around -0.6°C), which means that La Nina is yet to develop. "La Nina is slightly favoured to develop during August-October in 2016, with about a 55-60% chance of La Niña during the fall and winter 2016-17," it stated.
La Nina causes excess cooling over Pacific Ocean and is known to positively shape the southwest monsoon over India. Two other factors that aid the monsoon over India are Indian Ocean Dipole and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). These have not been favourable for India, so far. It is due to all these reasons that the quantum rainfall for southwest monsoon this year will be normal, staying between 94-104 % of the LPA.
The MJO may travel towards Indian Ocean around September 18-20. By that time, monsoon will withdraw from most parts of northwest India. Therefore, the impact of MJO will be negligible in terms of rainfall activity during rest of the monsoon season.
Meanwhile, the missing act of the monsoon after the downpour in early August has resulted in more than 50% deficit in Aurangabad, Amravati and Nagpur divisions, the state revenue division said on Thursday.
As a fallout, the state that reported slightly surplus monsoon (101.9%) by July-end has registered 89.9% of normal expected rainfall by August-end.
Aurangabad division reported only 41.9% of normal expected rainfall in August, followed by Amravati (46.9%), Nagpur (48.8%) and Nashik (85.8%). Only Pune (114.4%) and Konkan (108.2%) divisions received satisfactory rainfall in August, raising the overall tally of the state.
B V Asewar, chief scientist with Parbhani-based Vasantrao Naik Marathwada Agricultural University, said the overall rains so far have been good for kharif crops. "Different kharif crops were in stress due to considerable gap in rain in late August. The light to medium showers being witnessed now are critical for crops. Good rainfall has been forecast in September and farmers are pinning their hopes on it," he said.